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Charlie

Hey Roland, thanks for the 144 € discount.

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Posted (edited)

 

DISCLAIMER

This is a joke and a meme, do not take this seriously. I am also aware that this is not a "discount" of any kind since, theoretically, anybody who would do this would still be paying a very large sum of money for digital items. Now please enjoy my boredom and play this music to enhance the Charlie math experience and click on the spoiler below.

 

Spoiler

Hey everyone, so since I didn't want my second grade math to go to waste I thought about the best way to scam our great Presidente for some money.

Since the loot crates that were recently added only give you items that you do not already own, what would happen if I purchase all the 3 € items in the shop and then proceed to exclusively buy loot crates to gain all the other items that have a value of 5 € and above.

Lets do some math:

Currently I do not won 49 items that have the "value" 3 € which equals 147 €.

Then there are 45 items left which I do not own that have a "value" of either 5 €, 7 €, or 9 €. Adding them all together in a calculator means they are "worth" 279 €.

147 € + 279 € = 426 €. This means, for me to purchase all the items that I do not currently own would take me 426 € without loot crates.

Lets start from the beginning and say we buy all the items that have a "value" of 3 € making our starting cost 147 €. Since we now already own all 3 € items the chance for us to get another on in a loot box is effectively 0% since we can not get an item we already own. Buying 45 loot boxes for 3 € each would cost us 135 €.

147 € + 135 € = 282 €. This means, for me to purchase all the items that I do not currently own would take me 282 € with the use of loot crates.

426 € - 282 € = 144 €. This is the "discount" I would get for exploiting the way loot boxes work currently.

Thanks @Roland

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Charlie

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I was sat in discord with him, while he was working this out, took him 2 hours not a good usage of time 

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I'm aware of this, thought about solving it while coding logic for picking random item. In the end couldn't come up with anything, so just ignored it. It's not like people are spending 200 on virtual items every day. 

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1 hour ago, Roland said:

I'm aware of this, thought about solving it while coding logic for picking random item. In the end couldn't come up with anything, so just ignored it. It's not like people are spending 200 on virtual items every day. 

You would be suprised

csgoinventory_2.jpg

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That's some nice math, I like it.

If you know probability math better than me, the next section might be very triggering, because I might be very wrong, but I did try. Correct me if I'm wrong please.

If you do a naive calculation of the expected value of buying a loot box it goes like this:
(3×0.5 + 5×0.3 + 7×0.15 + 9×0.05 - 3×1) = 1.5 (€) [I included the -3€ as the crate cost is always taken from you]
Thus, if you bought these crates over and over again multiple times, your gains per crate would get closer and closer to 1.5€.

But then assuming that if you have all the 3€ items, the 50% probability gets transferred over to the 5€ items (thus keeping it as likely to get those 7€ & 9€ items but making the 5€ items now more likely), the expected value changes and is:
(5×0.8 + 7×0.15 + 9×0.05 - 3×1) = 2.5 (€)
And so on..
(7×0.95 + 9×0.05 - 3×1) = 4.1 (€)
(9×1 - 3×1) = 6 (€)

I have no idea how the probabilities are distributed after you own all the 3€ items, but that's my guess. This is why it becomes more and more profitable (to you) the more you buy (the less you have of the lesser value items).

Since expected value is linear (One crate 1.5€ expected value, two crates 2×1.5€=3€ expected value), if I'm not horribly wrong it might be possible to calculate your savings something like this:
a = amount of 3€ items, b = amount of 5€ items, c = amount of 7€ items, d = amount of 9€ items
a×(3×0.5 + 5×0.3 + 7×0.15 + 9×0.05 - 3×1) + b×(5×0.8 + 7×0.15 + 9×0.05 - 3×1) + c×(7×0.95 + 9×0.05 - 3×1) + d×(9×1 - 3×1)

With my values that I peeked quickly:
49 (3×0.5 + 5×0.3 + 7×0.15 + 9×0.05 - 3×1) + 32 (5×0.8 + 7×0.15 + 9×0.05 - 3×1) + 12 (7×0.95 + 9×0.05 - 3×1) + 11 (9×1 - 3×1) = 268.7 (€)

I'm not sure on this last piece of math, it's most likely a lot more complicated than this, as you'd have to take into account that it's not always 49 times that you get those chances and so on, but this was my best shot at it before taking my math course on probability.

So, idk what my calculations are actually worth. Your calculation at least shows how much money you're going to save if you just buy all the 3€ items. If someone is better at probability/statistics math, please correct me ❤️

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math GIF

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DayzRP lootboxes? didnt know that was a thing

Would not have believed couple years ago that this is where dayzRP would come 😂😂😂

Or maybe i would have 🤔

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This is hands down the best thing I've seen here yet. 

Have some beans, math makes you hungry I hear.

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